Scenarios and Sustainability - A Swedish Case Study of Adaptation Tools for Local Decision-Makers

Adaptation to climate change often involves long time frames and uncertainties over consequences of chosen adaptation measures. In this study, two tools developed for assisting local decision-makers in adaptation planning were tested: socio-economic scenarios and sustainability analysis. The objective was to study whether these tools could be of practical relevance to Swedish municipalities and foster local level climate change adaptation.

Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice

This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise.

Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making

At its core, the report presents an eight-stage decision- making framework. Given the broad audience and diversity of applications, the framework and supporting guidance are inevitably rather generic. There are questions for the decision-maker to apply at each stage, and tools that may help. Guidance is provided for any decision that is likely to be influenced by climate, and decisions being made specifically in response to climate.

On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change

With climate change as prototype example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of lowprobability, high-impact catastrophes. Even when updated by Bayesian learning, uncertain structural parameters induce a critical “tail fattening” of posterior-predictive distributions. Such fattened tails have strong implications for situations, like climate change, where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages.

The Curious Role of Learning in Climate Policy: Should We Wait for More Data?

Given the large uncertainties regarding potential damages from climate change and the significant but also uncertain costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the debate over a policy responce is often framed as a choice of acting now or waiting until the uncertainty is reduced. I demonstrate in the general case that the ability to learn in the future can lead to either less restrictive or more restrictive policies today.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure.

MEDIATION and the Adaptation Challenge: Identifying appropriate methods and tools to support climate change adaptation decision making.

The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication. Further information on the MEDIATION methodology, Adaptation Platform and training materials, which were developed for experts with basic technical or scientific knowledge rather than the general public,

The role of social learning in adaptiveness: insights from water management.

The article introduces the notion of adaptiveness and discusses the role of social learning in it. Adaptiveness refers to the capacity of a social actor or social– ecological system to adapt in response to, or in anticipation of, changes in the environment. We explore arguments both from a theoretical perspective and through illustrations from case studies of water management in the Alps of Europe and Mekong in southeast Asia. We propose and illustrate that social learning processes are important for building adaptiveness in several ways and at different scales.

Embedding climate change adaptation in biodiversity conservation: A case study of England

While mitigation has been the dominant policy response to climate change in the global community, practitioners and scholars have argued that significant climate change will occur even in the event of dramatic emissions reductions in the near term, thus adaptation is vital to address these impacts and to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience to multiple stresses. Increasingly the need to mainstream this adaptation into development planning, sectoral decision-making and policy making is being recognised.

Tolerable risk for dams: How safe is safe enough.

Risk assessment provides an opportunity to manage dam safety using a framework of risk evaluation that is used for other types of hazardous facilities and technologies. This paper contains a presentation of risk evaluation from a broad perspective but with application to dam safety. The distinction between tolerable and acceptable risk and the difference between risk evaluation under Common Law and Napoleonic Civil Code legal systems is addressed.