Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi

Climate variability poses a severe threat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Two different approaches have emerged in recent years to address these threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecasts for risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varieties that can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), and the use of innovative financial instruments for risk sharing (for example, index-based weather insurance bundled to microcredit for agricultural inputs). So far these two approaches have remained entirely separated.

Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities : an application of fund

Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulate the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. The results show that in the base case, the direct economic damage of tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change amounts to $19 billion globally (almost the same level as the baseline (current) global damage of tropical cyclones) in the year 2100, while the ratio to world GDP is 0.006%.

Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change : an application of FUND

Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. In the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.4 billion globally (approximately 35% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0007%.

How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries? : a review of the growth literature with a climate lens

This paper reviews the empirical and theoretical literature on economic growth to examine how the four components of the climate change bill, namely mitigation, proactive (ex ante) adaptation, reactive (ex post) adaptation, and ultimate damages of climate change affect growth, especially in developing countries. The authors consider successively the Cass-Koopmans growth model and three major strands of the subsequent literature on growth: with multiple sectors, with rigidities, and with increasing returns.

Balancing expenditures on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change : an exploration of issues relevant to developing countries

Although climate policies have been so far mostly focused on mitigation, adaptation to climate change is a growing concern in developed and developing countries. This paper discusses how adaptation fits into the global climate strategy, at the global and national levels. To do so, a partial equilibrium optimization model of climate policies—which includes mitigation, proactive adaptation (ex ante), and reactive adaptation (ex post)—is solved without and with uncertainty. Mitigation, proactive adaptation, and reactive adaptation are found to be generally jointly determined.

Climate change and adaptation : the case of Nigerian agriculture

The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture, covering more than 80% of agricultural value added. The evaluation is performed shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development until the mid of this century. The detail of land uses in the model has been also increased differentiating land types per agro ecological zones.

Adaptation measures in the EU : policies, costs, and economic assessment : climate proofing of key EU policies

The aim of this report was to identify the most appropriate measures on the EU level to address different threats. A final selection of measures to be assessed with a view to their costs and economic, social and environmental impacts was agreed at the first interim meeting with the Commission. Measures already part of EU wide assessment projects were no part of the assessment.

Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice

This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise.

Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: science, impacts, and adaptation

Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally.

Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making

At its core, the report presents an eight-stage decision- making framework. Given the broad audience and diversity of applications, the framework and supporting guidance are inevitably rather generic. There are questions for the decision-maker to apply at each stage, and tools that may help. Guidance is provided for any decision that is likely to be influenced by climate, and decisions being made specifically in response to climate.

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