The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis.

Author names: 
Solow, A.R.
Adams, R.F.
Bryant, K.J.
Legler, D.M.
O'Brien, J.J.
McCarl, B.A.
Nayda, W.
Weiher, R.
Climatic Change

Solow, A.R., Adams, R.F., Bryant, K.J., Legler, D.M., O'Brien, J.J., McCarl, B.A., Nayda, W., and Weiher, R. (1998). The value of improved ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. Climatic Change, 39, 47-60.

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