Application of real option analysis to Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project
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resultsDissertation focuses on the need for flexibility in urban drainage systems due to uncertain future conditions.
Study applies RIO (real in option) analysis to the selection and timing of options for the modification of an urban drainage system as an example of how best to adapt these systems to provide greater climate change resilience.
Document develops a “real options” approach for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and their operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty.
Contributes to the existing literature by implementing Monte Carlo simulations and real options valuation in estimating SLR costs and adaptation benefits under uncertainty in Greece.
Paper examines whether a real options approach that recognizes uncertainty and maintains future flexibility can provide an improved adaptation investment strategy for sea level rise.
The FP7 MEDIATION project has undertaken a detailed review of decision support tools, and has tested them in a series of case studies. It has assessed their applicability for adaptation and analysed how they consider uncertainty.
Report illustrates the application of Real Option Value approach to guide decision-making under high levels of uncertainty in Campeche, Mexico.
Analytical annex for the The National Adaptation Programme. Contains the current evidence base for adaptation decision-making and presents the analysis that informs the National Adaptation Programme’s approach to adaptation to climate change.
Explores the theoretical issues associated with estimating the costs of adaptation to climate change with a focus on the inclusion in Cost-Benefit Analysis of option values.
Chapter assesses the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation, building on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and the increasing role that economic considerations are playing in adaptation decisionmaking and policy.
Paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty.
Guidance note presents various methodologies aimed at carrying out an economic evaluation of adaptation investments in agriculture and natural resource management (NRM), and provides some guidance in selecting the most suitable approach for the project under consideration.
The article outlines a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales.
This volume illustrates the impacts of global warming already under way and the potential for adaptation to reduce the vulnerability to, and risks of climate change.
This note builds on Dobes (2008) and Dobes (2010) which propose that the „real options‟ approach is ideally suited to addressing the climatic uncertainty associated with adaptation measures.
The selection of climate policy has to be made in an extremely uncertain environment: both benefits and costs of a particular climate policy are unknown and in the best case could be described by the probability distribution of various outcomes.
Can the existing and very extensive private sector organizations provide those at risk from climate change with adequate insurance cover? If not, why not? What changes in market institutions might be appropriate in this case? This paper is about these and related questions. In attempting to answer them, we deal with many different aspects of the theory of risk-bearing.
Climate policy uncertainty has decisive influence on energy sector strategies. Potential stranded climate-energy investments may be enormous. Remote sensing can improve our understanding of the climate system and thus better inform climate policy and reduce associated uncertainties. We develop an integrated energy-portfolio model to value these uncertainties.
This book deals with the difficulties that face the economics of adaptation. Critical issues include: uncertainty; baselines; reversibility, flexibility and adaptive management; distributional impacts; discount rates and time horizons; mixing monetary and non-monetary evaluations and limits to the use of cost-benefit analysis; economy-wide impacts and cross-sectoral linkages.
The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication.
It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions.
Scientists consider that some climate change is already inevitable, even if anthropogenic greenhouse emissions are stabilised immediately. Adaptation measures are therefore needed, irrespective of any mitigation action. But policy discussion is focussed on deterministic responses, generally risk-based „worst case‟ scenarios.
As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation.
As global temperaturesmayincrease due to climate change, sowould energy use forbuildingheating and cooling. Additionally, energy prices fluctuate in relation to climate change socio-economic impacts and related policies, which in turn further influence future building operational costs.
This paper illustrates the static optimisation strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation using net marginal benefit analysis, and goes on to develop a dynamic optimisation solution using a modified Hotelling approach.
Scientists predict that some climate change is already inevitable, even if greenhouse emissions are stabilised. Adaptation strategies will be of comparable importance to reducing emissions. However, the specific effects of climate change are currently unknowable, especially at the local level. Given this uncertainty, deterministic adaptation strategies are inappropriate.
Although sea-level rise (SLR) is not the only driver of coastal change, it is expected to radically alter the living conditions and prosperity of coastal communities in the decades to come.
Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using Real Options and optimization.
It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions.
Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy.