A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia.

This study links a multisectoral, regionalized, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Ethiopia with a system country-specific hydrology, crop, road, and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change scenarios from global circulation models (GCMs) to 2050. In the absence of externally funded, policy-driven adaptation investments, Ethiopia’s GDP in 2050 will be up to 10% below the counterfactual no climate change (historical climate) baseline.

Dairy productivity and climatic conditions: econometric evidence from South-eastern United States

Climate change and food security have become critical issues in the agricultural policy agenda. Although global warming is expected to increase both the frequency and severity of heat stress on dairy cattle, there are very few economic studies focusing on this issue. This paper contributes to the literature by integrating the frontier methodology, commonly used in applied production economics, with heat stress indexes used by animal scientists but largely ignored by economists.

Impacts of climate change on lower Murray irrigation

This article evaluates irrigated agriculture sector response and resultant economic impacts of climate change for a part of the Murray Darling Basin in Australia. A water balance model is used to predict reduced basin inflows for mild, moderate and severe climate change scenarios involving 1, 2 and 4 C warming, and predict 13, 38 and 63% reduced inflows. Impact on irrigated agricultural production and profitability are estimated with a mathematical programming model using a two-stage approach that simultaneously estimates short and long-run adjustments.

The effect of ambiguous risk, and coordination on farmers’ adaptation to climate change — A framed field experiment

The risk of losses of income and productive means due to adverse weather can differ significantly among farmers sharing a productive landscape, and is of course hard to estimate, or even “guesstimate” empirically. Moreover, the costs associated with investments in reduced vulnerability to climatic events are likely to exhibit economies of scope. We explore the implications of these characteristics on farmer's decisions to adapt to climate change using a framed field experiment applied to coffee farmers in Costa Rica.

The scope for adaptation to climate change : what can we learn from the impact literature?

Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation, observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization). All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation.

A structural Ricardian analysis of climate change impacts and adaptations in African agriculture

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as croponly or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops.

Ökonomie des Klimawandels integrierte ökonomische Bewertung der Instrumente zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel.

This study has the overall objective to make proposals for action for the implementation of the National Adaptation Strategy of the German federal government addressing finance and incentive structures. On that account, the current state of research on the economics of climate change and the adaptation to it is assessed, an overview on specific policy measures is given, and possible evaluation criteria of these instruments are created. By means of a illustrative multi-criterion analysis, specific instruments are evaluated.

Adaptation à court et à long terme de l’agriculture au risque de sécheresse : une approche par couplage de modèles biophysiques et économiques.

In this article, we analyse the impact of drought risk on agriculture. We use a biophysical crop growth model (STICS) in order to simulate crop yield under various climatic scenarios. A micro-economic model which optimises, under climate uncertainty, land allocation across crops and irrigation is developed to reflect farmer’s behaviour. This framework is used to assess the impact of drought risk on a representative French farmer located in the Midi-Pyrénées region (South-West of France). We first show that, on the short run, the private cost of a drought can be high.

Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi

Climate variability poses a severe threat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Two different approaches have emerged in recent years to address these threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecasts for risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varieties that can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), and the use of innovative financial instruments for risk sharing (for example, index-based weather insurance bundled to microcredit for agricultural inputs). So far these two approaches have remained entirely separated.

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability: Do it now or wait and see?

As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation. As a plausible case in which the delay carries policy implications, we investigate farmers’ choices when adaptation involves the use of an open-access resource (water).

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