Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure

Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy. In a non-stationary world, however, it is risky and/or uneconomic to plan for just one climate change scenario as an average or best estimate, as is done with the use of the Predict-Then-Adapt method.

Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using Real Options and optimization.

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex.

Assessing sea level rise costs and adaptation benefits under uncertainty in Greece.

Although sea-level rise (SLR) is not the only driver of coastal change, it is expected to radically alter the living conditions and prosperity of coastal communities in the decades to come. The economic assessment of sea level rise impacts and of coastal adaptation measures proves to be rather demanding due to the fact that these are complex phenomena, affected by both global conditions and local parameters.

Getting Real about Adapting to Climate Change: Using ‘Real Options’ to Address the Uncertainties

Scientists predict that some climate change is already inevitable, even if greenhouse emissions are stabilised. Adaptation strategies will be of comparable importance to reducing emissions. However, the specific effects of climate change are currently unknowable, especially at the local level. Given this uncertainty, deterministic adaptation strategies are inappropriate.

Climate Change Policy: The Effect of Real Options Valuation on the Optimal Mitigation-Adaptation Balance

This paper illustrates the static optimisation strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation using net marginal benefit analysis, and goes on to develop a dynamic optimisation solution using a modified Hotelling approach. Unfortunately, the situation required for a Hotelling-type optimisation to hold is rarely observed in practice, as there are numerous sources of uncertainty that impact upon a forward-looking optimisation exercise.

Assessing future climate change and energy price scenarios: institutional building investment

As global temperaturesmayincrease due to climate change, sowould energy use forbuildingheating and cooling. Additionally, energy prices fluctuate in relation to climate change socio-economic impacts and related policies, which in turn further influence future building operational costs. A new method is presented to consider climate change and future energy price scenarios for institutional building owners to compare investment options for various energy conservation measures related to heating and cooling.

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability: Do it now or wait and see?

As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals’ (farmers’) investment decisions with regard to adaptation. As a plausible case in which the delay carries policy implications, we investigate farmers’ choices when adaptation involves the use of an open-access resource (water).

ADAPTING MORE CLEVERLY TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING “REAL OPTIONS” TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES.

Scientists consider that some climate change is already inevitable, even if anthropogenic greenhouse emissions are stabilised immediately. Adaptation measures are therefore needed, irrespective of any mitigation action. But policy discussion is focussed on deterministic responses, generally risk-based „worst case‟ scenarios. An example is the development of more stringent standards for buildings and for coastal development. Such „climate proofing‟ is misconceived in the face of the huge uncertainties involved.

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex.

MEDIATION and the Adaptation Challenge: Identifying appropriate methods and tools to support climate change adaptation decision making.

The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication. Further information on the MEDIATION methodology, Adaptation Platform and training materials, which were developed for experts with basic technical or scientific knowledge rather than the general public,

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