Agreeing on Robust Decisions: New Processes for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions.

Adaptation, flexibility and project decisionmaking with climate change uncertainties

Project planning in the future must directly address both climate change and uncertainties about it. This paper presents the use of classical decision criteria, such as maximin and minimax regret, and approaches for adapting to climate change given the uncertainties. Adaptation strategies can help reduce the effects of uncertainties by allowing for adjustments in designs as the future climate evolves, although at a cost for such future flexibility.

Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change.

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated.

MEDIATION and the Adaptation Challenge: Identifying appropriate methods and tools to support climate change adaptation decision making.

The MEDIATION project guides researchers, policy advisors and experts to suitable climate change adaptation methods and tools for a wide range of questions and from various disciplines and perspectives. The project involves 11 partners and 11 case studies. Summaries of five of these case studies can be found in the present publication. Further information on the MEDIATION methodology, Adaptation Platform and training materials, which were developed for experts with basic technical or scientific knowledge rather than the general public,

Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation

This book deals with the difficulties that face the economics of adaptation. Critical issues include: uncertainty; baselines; reversibility, flexibility and adaptive management; distributional impacts; discount rates and time horizons; mixing monetary and non-monetary evaluations and limits to the use of cost-benefit analysis; economy-wide impacts and cross-sectoral linkages. All of these are addressed in the book from the perspective of economics of adaptation.

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

This report provides examples of the range of options currently available for adapting to climate variability and extremes in key climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, energy, and transportation. Although these examples alone may not be sufficient for coping with future climate change, they offer a starting point for devising adaptation strategies. While the report provides a long list of options to be considered for various sectors.

An Independent National Adaptation Programme for England

The purpose of this policy brief is to contribute to the National Adaptation Programme that is currently under preparation by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The Climate Change Act (Her Majesty’s Government, 2008) requires the Government to put in place, and update every five years, a National Adaptation Programme (NAP), which addresses climate change risks. This policy brief aims to contribute to this process by offering an analytical framework and formulating a rational basis for thinking about adaptation.

The Economics of Climate Change in Zanzibar. Final Summary Report.

The primary objective of this study has been to develop a comprehensive, participatory, and indigenously oriented climate change review study in Zanzibar, in order to address the required implementation formula in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Supporting decision-making for effective adaptation. NCCARF Policy Guidance Brief 3

NCCARF’s evidence-based Policy Guidance Briefs address key challenges to effectively adapting Australia to a variable and changing climate, providing high-level policy advice designed for use by policy makers at Commonwealth and State level. This Policy Guidance Brief explores the support of decision-making for adaptation, through provision of frameworks, knowledge and criteria for performance evaluation and comparison. Broadly, these are known as Decision Support Tools, or DSTs.

Guidelines for Climate Proofing Investment in Agriculture, Rural Development, and Food Security

This publication aims to present a step-by-step methodological approach to assist project teams to assess and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into agriculture, rural development, and food security investment projects.

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